Bitcoin hovers above $100,000 as whale buying and ETF inflows lift sentiment: analysts

Bitcoin is still trading above $100,000 after a bruising week of volatility. The market-leading cryptocurrency has been buoyed by renewed institutional inflows and signs of whale accumulation that, analysts say, suggest confidence is quietly returning to the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

According to The Block’s price page, bitcoin traded near $101,500 after oscillating between $100,000 and $103,000 in the past 24 hours. The move marks the first stretch of stability since recent deleveraging events, which pushed BTC below six figures for the first time since May.

"The tone has shifted from panic to positioning," said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. "The leverage flush has left derivatives markets clean and spot markets primed for accumulation. With ETF inflows resuming and whales adding aggressively, the stage may be set for recalibration rather than continuation of the drawdown."

ETF inflows return after six days of outflows

After nearly a week of redemptions, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $240 million in net inflows on Thursday — breaking a six-day losing streak. Ethereum ETFs added $12.5 million, and Solana ETFs extended their streak to eight straight days of inflows with $29 million.

Analysts regard the reversal as significant. ETF flows have become a proxy for institutional sentiment, and when redemptions stop, it often marks the end of short-term deleveraging phases.

Adding to the bullish signals, Misir flagged accumulation from large holders as bitcoin retreated to a five-month low. "Whales and institutions have added nearly 30,000 BTC this week, worth almost $3 billion," Misir noted. "Long-term holders remain in control, and that underpins the market’s structural stability."

Macro lens: mixed signals but easing tension

Macroeconomic data reinforced a sense of cautious optimism. U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, a 175% year-over-year increase — the highest October reading since 2003 — highlighting corporate caution in a slowing economy.

Still, QCP Capital said in a Wednesday note that "the macro backdrop remains constructive but obscured by Washington’s ongoing government shutdown." The firm pointed to a mix of resilient GDP prints and softer payroll data, suggesting "robust productivity gains" and moderate growth momentum.

Yet, policy clarity remains elusive. After the Fed’s October rate cut, the odds of another move in December sit near 60%, according to QCP, but "the longer the blackout drags on, the more comfortable policymakers may become with pausing."

Markets found modest relief from the ongoing U.S.-China thaw, with trade tariffs eased earlier this week, and from the Fed’s resumed repo operations, which have alleviated recent dollar liquidity strain. The result has been a brief pause in the cross-asset deleveraging that hit equities, metals, and crypto alike earlier in the week.

Rotation over retreat

Market structure metrics show that capital is rotating within crypto, not exiting entirely. Data from FalconX indicates traders remain cautious but engaged.

"While there’s clearly some short-term bearishness, we’re not seeing people flee to cash," said Griffin Sears, head of derivatives at FalconX, shared with The Block. "Funds are selling alts and switching into major currencies like bitcoin and ether. That could spur another period of rising bitcoin dominance — a sign that institutional conviction still lies in BTC."

Ethereum traded near $3,340, while BNB hovered around $955 and Solana held at $155, The Block’s price page shows.

Onchain data also supports the recovery narrative. Roughly 71% of the total BTC supply remains in profit, while exchange balances continue to fall, a signal of long-term accumulation rather than capitulation.

Analyst outlooks shift, but conviction holds

Despite the rebound, market forecasts have become more restrained. Galaxy Digital trimmed its year-end bitcoinfrom $185,000 to $120,000. The firm expects competition from AI and gold, coupled with profit taking, might throttle BTC’s upside.

Similarly, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest lowered its bull-case projection by $300,000, suggesting stablecoins have absorbed part of BTC’s traditional use case.

Conversely, JPMorgan reiterated its view that bitcoin could reach $170,000 within 6–12 months, driven by macro easing and ETF momentum.