Galaxy trims bitcoin year-endto $120,000 amid whale selling, AI competition and gold demand

Bitcoin’s slide below $100,000 this week has prompted Galaxy Digital to cut its 2025 year-end priceto $120,000 from $185,000, with researchers saying the cryptocurrency has entered a "maturity era" dominated by institutional flows and lower volatility.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, wrote that while bitcoin's long-term case "remains structurally sound," the year has been defined by heavy whale distribution, ETF-driven absorption, and waning retail participation.

"If bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower," he said.

The downgrade follows one of bitcoin’s steepest pullbacks of the year, as more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated when the price fell from around $107,000 to below $99,000 on Tuesday. Bitcoin has since recovered to trade just above $103,400 on Wednesday, according to The Block’s price page.

Analysts told The Block the market remains "fragile," with ETF outflows, thinning liquidity, and renewed long-term holder distribution weighing on sentiment.

Galaxy pointed to unprecedented redistribution from long-term wallets — about 470,000 bitcoin worth roughly $50 billion — as early holders sold into institutional demand. The firm said that while this shift marks the "institutionalization of bitcoin supply," it has created persistent resistance near key levels.

Capital flows elsewhere

Beyond the structural shifts, Galaxy said bitcoin's performance this year has also been constrained by capital rotation into other dominant investment narratives, particularly artificial intelligence and gold.

The AI buildout and hyperscaler boom have attracted record inflows as investors chase the data-center trade, while gold’s resurgence as a geopolitical hedge has drawn safe-haven demand that might otherwise flow into bitcoin. Thorn wrote that in a liquidity-rich environment, "attention is finite," and 2025 simply wasn't bitcoin's "hot trade" year compared with AI or the so-called Magnificent Seven equities.

The Oct. 10 leverage wipeout that erased 35% of crypto futures open interest also continues to dampen confidence.

"Fear-driven sentiment and heavy selling from long-term holders have compounded the weakness," said K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde, who described bitcoin’s current phase as a "crucial inflection point" following the crash. Still, he expects selling pressure to ease and sees "conditions aligning for a potential bullish reversal once risk appetite returns."

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant offered a starker view. Head of research Julio Moreno said bitcoin could fall to around $72,000 within one to two months if it fails to hold the $100,000 support level, citing "contracting spot demand" and "negative ETF flows" since the October liquidation event.