Square Bitcoin a 'big test' of BTC’s future as payments network with $300 million profit upside, says Mizuho

Block’s move to let Square merchants accept bitcoin could add $200–$300 million in gross profit over the medium term if adoption gains traction, according to a new note from Mizuho Securities.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said the initiative — dubbed “Square Bitcoin” — is a “big test” of whether the cryptocurrency can evolve from a store of value into an everyday payment method.

Starting Nov. 10, U.S. merchants outside of New York will be able to accept bitcoin at point of sale with no fees through the end of 2026.

Mizuho estimates that if just 0.1% of Visa and Mastercard’s projected $11 trillion in 2027 U.S. volumes shifted to bitcoin, about $10 billion to $12 billion could run through Block’s rails.

With half of that being converted to or from dollars, Block could generate the additional $200 million to $300 million in gross profit.

The new bitcoin payments tool and merchant wallet let businesses automatically convert up to 50% of daily revenue into bitcoin, up from a previous cap of 10%. Block said merchants had already converted 142 BTC, worth about $17.5 million at the time.

Shares of Block (ticker XYZ) climbed to an eight-month high of $81 on the rollout, but have slipped below $76 today, according to The Block price data. The downturn comes amid weakness in crypto and equities markets after President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on China.