Ethereum has less short-term price potential than bitcoin, QCP Capital analysts say

Quick Take

Options traders are less optimistic about ether’s short-term price performance compared to bitcoin’s, QCP Capital analysts said.
However, analysts maintain a positive outlook for ether in the medium to long term.

Options traders are now anticipating more significant price movements for bitcoin compared to ether, reflecting a potential shift in short-term market sentiment that favors the former over the latter.

After the highly anticipated trading of Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) commenced on Tuesday, the expected market surge failed to materialize. In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has traded down 1.4%, now changing hands for $3,455 as of the time of writing, according to The Block's Price Page.

QCP Capital analysts have observed that bitcoin options now have higher implied volatility than ether options, meaning that more price movement is expected for BTC in the short term. "Ethereum volatility sold off across the term structures, and the premium of ether to bitcoin vols on the frontend has finally reversed, with bitcoin 1-week and 2-week options trading at 1 to 3 points higher than ether now," QCP Capital analysts said.

Ethereum ETFs underperform compared to first day of bitcoin ETFs

The newly launched and highly anticipated spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of over $107 million on the first day of trading,

This was a significant underperformance compared to the $655 million of net inflows on the first day of trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). One factor in the reduced capital flows into Ethereum ETFs was the $484 million outflow from Grayscale's converted Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) on day one of trading.

However, QCP Capital analysts maintain a positive outlook for ether in the medium to long term. "Bitcoin's achievement of an all-time high two months post-ETF launch provides a compelling precedent. Anticipating sustained institutional interest, Ethereum's price trajectory may gradually converge with its previous all-time high," QCP Capital analysts added.

Ethereum ETF inflows to gradually increase

BRN analyst Valentin Fournier also suggested that positive Ethereum ETF activity, in the medium to long term, might counteract the post-launch sell-off and drive prices higher.

"If spot Ethereum ETF activity, which has been positive, is maintained over the following days, Ethereum could compensate for the post-launch Ethereum sell-off and push toward higher levels," Fournier said.

However, he expects bitcoin to outperform ether in the near term due to increased crypto activity and the reduced impact of the Ethereum ETF launch sell-off on bitcoin.

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